By Barbara Wynne, Managing Director, Hanover Brussels
When Mark Carney spoke in Davos last week about a "rupture in the world order", he was reflecting on geopolitics in flux. But the phrase resonates closer to home too. In Brussels, a system long defined by process, technical expertise and carefully balanced political alliances is undergoing a quieter, but no less consequential, shift.
This is not a rupture in the sense of collapse. The EU’s policymaking machinery still turns. Consultations still take place. Impact assessments are still drafted. Proposals still move through the institutions. Yet the environment in which decisions are shaped feels markedly different to even one mandate ago.
For organisations doing business in Europe, that difference matters. Because influence in Brussels today is no longer simply about understanding the process. It is about understanding where power really sits, how it is exercised, and who shapes the debate long before formal decisions are taken.
A system under pressure
Three overlapping dynamics are reshaping influence in Brussels.
First, geopolitics and domestic politics are exerting unprecedented pressure on EU decision-making. External shocks, from war on the EU’s borders to energy insecurity and trade tensions, increasingly define political priorities. Policy is often driven from the outside in, or from the top down. The result is faster, more politicised decision-making, with less space for the bottom-up, consensus-driven technical debates that once characterised many EU dossiers.
Consultation processes still happen. But many stakeholders privately question whether they are always designed to inform outcomes, or simply to legitimise them. Evidence still matters, but timing, narrative and political context matter more than ever.
Second, power has become increasingly centralised around the President of the European Commission. Recent State of the Union speeches have sounded less like the head of a civil service outlining its work programme and more like a head of state setting political direction and attempting to appeal directly to ‘citizens’. Major signals are sometimes communicated first through exclusive Tier 1 media interviews rather than presented to the parliament and member states, as was once the case. This reflects a Commission operating in a more political, contested environment, and responding accordingly.
Third, the internal dynamics of the European Parliament have shifted. Traditional alliances are under strain as populist voting patterns in member states ripple through Brussels. The sacred ‘cordon sanitaire’ is no longer respected. Democracy is not disappearing, but it is evolving.
Access has shifted too. In the last mandate, it was often “I only meet CEOs.” Today, it increasingly feels like “I only meet groups of CEOs.” Some companies that enjoyed access last year find themselves on the outside this year, sometimes for reasons that have little to do with the quality of their arguments and everything to do with politics, perception or geography.
What businesses are experiencing
We all have a sense of, and can see, the shift. We read about it, and we live it in our interactions with the EU policy-making machine.
The familiar playbook, engage early, provide evidence, build consensus, still applies. But it is no longer sufficient on its own.
The real question businesses are asking is not whether influence has changed, but how to operate effectively in this new environment. How do you prioritise engagement when power is more concentrated? How do you ensure your voice is heard when debates are politicised and crowded? And how do you avoid wasting time and effort on activity that no longer moves the needle?
From access to influence
Hanover’s view is that influence in Brussels today depends on three things: identifying the real influencers, earning trust, and creating champions.
That means looking beyond formal titles. Policymakers matter, but so do the people who shape their thinking, frame debates, connect communities and amplify messages.
That is why Hanover, working with our Madano colleagues, developed the Power Index, a data-led methodology designed to make influence in Brussels visible, structured and actionable.
Making power visible
At the heart of the Power Index is a simple idea: influence leaves a footprint.
By analysing more than 14,000 news and social media items over a 12-month period, the Power Index maps how debates evolve, who is shaping them, and where authority and amplification really sit.
This is not a static list of “important people”. It is a dynamic picture of the debate itself, and the distinct voices engaged in it and where there is space for new voices, evidence and leadership.
The methodology identifies different types of influence, from credibility builders to community connectors, to influential amplifiers, helping organisations understand not just who matters, but how they matter.
Turning insight into strategy
We looked at the issue of corporate fleet decarbonisation. Applying the Power Index to this polarised debate identified more than 125 active influential stakeholders, many of whom would not appear on a traditional stakeholder map.
The analysis showed that pledges and targets dominate coverage, while delivery is under-reported. Infrastructure, grid connections and financing receive far less attention, despite being central to success. At the same time, scepticism clusters around operational concerns: cost, reliability, charging access and timelines.
For organisations able to demonstrate delivery, with data, partnerships and proof, this creates a clear opportunity.
The Power Index translates these insights into action: shaping who to engage, when to engage, and how to tailor messages to them.
Influence with intent
In today’s Brussels, influence is no longer about working the system harder. It is about understanding it better.
The Power Index gives organisations the clarity to navigate complexity, the confidence to engage where it matters most, and the intelligence to tell their story with credibility and impact. In an environment where power is shifting and traditional routes to influence are less predictable that understanding is a competitive advantage.
Influence in Brussels hasn’t disappeared. It has simply become more political and more opaque. Making it visible is the first step to using it effectively.
If your organisation is navigating the complexity of the EU and wants to understand how to engage effectively, Hanover can help.
Talk to us
Get in touch with Barbara Wynne, Managing Director of Hanover Brussels, to discuss how the Power Index can help your organisation.
