While Sir Laurie did not find a breach of the ministerial standards, he established the SW1 equivalent of a pub test for Government.
Attention has now turned to Angela Rayner, the UK's Deputy Prime Minister and Secretary of State for Housing, Communities and Local Government, who has admitted underpaying around £40,000 in stamp duty on the purchase of a flat. She has since referred herself to Sir Laurie Magnus and pledged to cooperate fully with the investigation, while also moving to settle any unpaid tax.
Number 10 hopes she can frame this as a case of poor advice rather than personal misjudgment. Yet with speculation over a possible deputy leadership contest, the Prime Minister has had little option but to stand by her. The question now is whether this will prove a short-term storm or the beginning of a longer crisis.
At Hanover, we have asked former insiders to examine how Westminster is absorbing the fallout.
From the civil service strain of a potential reshuffle to Labour’s internal calculus, our experts explore what happens when politics meets personal judgment.
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Inside No.10 a view from Stephanie Lis
(Former No.10 Communications team)
These developments will be the last thing Keir Starmer would have wanted in the week he launched ‘phase 2’ of his government. Rather than talking about this reset, Downing Street is instead facing a barrage of bleak front pages, difficult media rounds and, unsurprisingly, claims of hypocrisy after years spent railing against their Tory opposition over their tax affairs. There will also be concern over the impact on government business – with whispers of this affecting a planned ministerial reshuffle.
It will be a difficult few days inside Number 10 for the Prime Minister’s Official Spokesperson who will have to answer questions from journalists at the daily lobby briefing. The big headache for the comms team will be questions about what the PM knew when, and whether he has at any point misled the public.
Standards investigations are no longer rare in politics, but Downing Street staff will be nervous. There is little they can do other than wait, and hope that further onslaughts from the media, especially the Sunday papers, are manageable. They will be grateful, at least, that ethics adviser Laurie Magnus seems to move much more quickly than his predecessors. The independent standards adviser to Boris Johnson, Alex Allan, took nine months to investigate whether Priti Patel had broken the Ministerial Code.
The hope in Number 10 will be that Angela Rayner can prove she was badly advised. It may come down to a matter of judgment, rather than legality. And whilst the former is damaging, it will allow the Prime Minister to retain a Deputy who is hugely popular with his party membership. The prospect of a deputy leadership election has arguably left the PM with no choice but to throw his weight behind her.
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Meanwhile, inside Parliament. A view from Dame Tracey Crouch
(Former Member of Parliament and Government Minister)
Being in the eye of a media storm is uncomfortable for anyone, whatever sector they are in. Yet when it happens in Parliament, something odd happens - those you often least expect are the ones that reach out, check you are OK, offer a cup of tea and a friendly smile. Parliament may well be made up of political tribes playing a game, some of whom play it more aggressively than others. But it is also an office building full of humans, from different backgrounds, conjoined in an institution that shares pain, weariness, and a calendar of unique experiences that no other sector faces.
When a colleague is hit by the stone flying through its glass windows, regardless of the deserved accuracy, others recognise the human at the centre of the target and a publicly unseen shield of empathy arises.
Angela Rayner is liked and respected from across the political spectrum. Yes, she has said unfair and harsh things about her opponents but that is the game. Opponents will respond to this story, seeking a scalp, securing a short term political victory that unsettles a vulnerable administration. That too is the game. But don’t be fooled because inside, she will have people across the House giving her a squidge, cocking their head and offering to help however they can. Mainly because, contrary to public opinion, MPs are inherently nice, caring people who don’t like seeing others suffer, regardless of who they are in society.
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Inside the Civil Service a view from Khobi Patterson-Vallis
(Former Civil Servant)
The Private Office is the guardian of the relationship between elected officials and the civil service. Unlike Special Advisers the balance between department and minister is sacrosanct. Not favouring one for the other - preserving both democratic oversight, and the rules that govern our policy making processes.
The term “first day briefings” will fill any Private Secretary with dread. Commissioned on the order of the Permanent Secretary and Principal Private Secretary to allow Directors to discreetly prepare for the imminent arrival of an incoming minister. Complicated for a junior minister, a short bible for a Secretary of State.
In the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government, this will include the bumper Planning and Infrastructure Bill that is in its final stages having started its passage in March. The biggest reform of the planning system in a generation. As well as the controversial English Devolution and Community Empowerment Bill as part of a major push on devolving powers from Whitehall, including the rollout of metro mayors, the biggest local government reform on record. Alongside manifesto commitments to give 16 year olds the vote and the not small task of building over a million new homes. All issues a new Secretary of State would need to pick up the mantle on from day one.
Onboarding a new minister, let alone a senior Cabinet one, is a huge amount of time and resource. Every decision in an unfinished process needs to be taken again. Civil Servants, especially Private Secretaries, hate reshuffles, not because they are lazy but because they are bad for delivering results.
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Over in the Labour Party. A view from Paddy Hennessy
(Former Labour Party Communications)
Both the PM and the Chancellor have been clear that they want to do what they can to save Rayner. But they both know it is likely to come down to a fine judgment call - any finding that she has overstepped the mark will make her position untenable.
The dynamics of the situation are complicated and worsened by the mistrust between No. 10 and Rayner’s team. The rumblings date back as early as the aftermath of the 2021 local elections - a low point for Starmer’s leadership. A subsequent failed attempt by Starmer to strip Rayner of her party chair left Starmer’s operation hugely shaken and Rayner’s position within the party strengthened.
Starmer can ask Rayner to resign as Deputy Prime Minister and from her ministerial portfolio but he cannot force her out as deputy Labour leader. Should she opt not to resign, only the membership can remove the title from her. A fractious deputy leadership election under a weakened leader is the last thing the party needs.
To complicate matters further, Starmer will not want a powerful malcontent behind him on the backbenches. An internal enemy with an axe to grind will leave Starmer watching his own back rather than his real opposition.
Before the scandal, Rayner was the clear favourite to succeed Starmer as party leader but now the position has changed: even her allies admit her complicated private life is a distraction.
‘The worst possible outcome for Keir is that it’s not a clean outcome and it turns into a really narrow and difficult judgment call for him,’ a Labour insider said.
Those with a keen eye have been closely examining the statements made by other Labour figures. Leading Cabinet ministers Wes Streeting and Peter Kyle have been very strong in their defence of Rayner. Perhaps both have one eye on a future leadership run-off should the turmoil continue.
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At the News Desk a view from Ian Walker
(Former Executive Editor)
Newsrooms across Britain will be buzzing as they battle to break the next exclusive line in the Angela Rayner story. There are so many questions that still need answering making it journalistic catnip.
The hunt will certainly be on for the lawyers who allegedly advised the deputy PM that she did not have to pay the full £70,000 stamp duty on her new £800,000 luxury pad in Hove.
She insists they gave her the wrong advice but has so far given no evidence to support that claim. Another key player is the eminent tax King’s Counsel who told her those rules had been wrongly interpreted.
There will also be major efforts to uncover whatever details of the trust set up for her disabled son can be legally accessed, including who the trustees are. Reporters will be seeking transparency over the sale of her stake in her home in Ashton-under-Lyme - apparently to benefit her son. But then how did she apparently manage to use money supposedly for her son to buy the flat?
Voters in her constituency, particularly business people squeezed by Labour’s latest tax hikes, will also be vox-popped for their view of their MP. Does her local party still support her? MPs of all political persuasions will be canvassed to either keep the pressure on, or to offer support.
Tax accountants will also be quizzed to see if there are any other skeletons in her many housing closets. They can also explain the exact penalties an ordinary member of the public could expect to face for failing to pay the correct amount of stamp duty on a property purchase.
There is no doubt this story has a way to run, it remains to be seen whether it ends as a tale of her downfall, or one of a great escape.
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