How Prime Ministers Fall

Despite the best efforts of recent administrations, history shows it is harder than it looks to remove a Prime Minister who wants to stay. Since WWII, Britain has had 17 PMs: eight met their fates at the hands of the electorate (if you include David Cameron’s referendum-induced defenestration); three went for health-related reasons; only six were forced out by their honourable friends. 

Two of those six stand apart. Anthony Eden and Liz Truss triggered policy disasters so severe that their authority collapsed almost overnight. In both cases, the loss of credibility was so immediate that resignation became unavoidable. While nothing can ever be ruled out, it is difficult to imagine Starmer facing a foreign-policy humiliation or fiscal calamity on that scale within the next year. 

That leaves four more useful comparisons: Thatcher, Blair, May and Johnson. It’s worth noting none were formally removed by a party process. There can often be an over-focus on such procedure. What has always mattered more in the past are the political fundamentals – here, we can see a number of common threads.  

First, prolonged electoral weakness. Blair faced years of melodrama about when it would finally be Gordon’s turn in No.10. He’d however been insulated until after 2005 by commanding poll leads. It was only after Labour fell persistently behind Cameron’s resurgent Conservatives and the party suffered a particularly bruising set of local election results in 2006 that he became vulnerable to a plot by Brownite junior ministers. When the end came, Thatcher, May and Johnson all found themselves trailing badly in the polls. 

Second, a widespread loss of confidence in judgment. Margaret Thatcher had survived poor polls and come back to win elections before. However, her handling of the Poll Tax and Cabinet divisions over Europe critically undermined confidence in her judgment and led many in the soft centre of the party to lose faith in her ability to bring the Party back together. For Blair, the leak of grandiose plans for a legacy tour proved a critical moment, while already tottering faith in Johnson was destroyed by his appointment of Chris Pincher the Whips' office, despite knowledge of alleged sexual misconduct (an uncomfortable parallel for Starmer right now). 

Third, a moment of crisis. Theresa May had undermined confidence in herself with the 2017 election debacle and suffered from poor polling thereafter. Things only got worse through years of Brexit attrition. She was however able to stagger on to mid-2019, when Parliament rejected her Brexit deal for a third time and the Tories finishing fifth in European elections eventually did for her. We’ve already seen the impact of local elections for Blair, while Thatcher’s crisis moment came with Howe’s resignation speech.  

Finally, there is the point when ministers decide to move. Johnson was able, just, to weather Brexit, Covid and Partygate – even if his government was critically weakened. His premiership however ended within 48 hours of 60 ministers resigning following the Chris Pincher affair. Once ministers moved, his position collapsed almost instantly. Similarly with Thatcher, who came closest to being removed by an official party process – but actually won the first round of voting. Her end came when Cabinet all but unanimously advised her to withdraw. 

So how does Starmer compare? 

First, electoral weakness. Starmer’s personal ratings are plumbing depths unreached by Liz Truss in some polls, while Labour risks slipping behind the Conservatives into third place. Reform continues to surge. A leader whose party doubts his electoral value is always at risk. 

Second, confidence in judgement. A Prime Minister survives only as long as colleagues trust their strategic decisions. That trust is already frayed: the mass rebellion on welfare reform, persistent negative briefings about the No.10 operation, and a growing pattern of U-turns have raised fundamental questions about competence at the centre. The Mandelson scandal appears to be the final straw.  

Third, a moment of crisis. Even if Starmer hobbles through his current troubles, local and devolved elections in May are widely expected to be punishing for Labour, potentially including the loss of its century-long dominance in Wales. Historically, it is these electoral flashpoints that turn discontent into action.  

Finally, Cabinet. Ministers are clearly manoeuvring for a post-Starmer future. What remains uncertain is whether any will be willing to deliver the final push. The lesson of Michael Heseltine’s warning – “he who wields the knife never wears the crown” – still resonates. 

The cautionary counter-example is Gordon Brown. Despite dire polling and repeated crises, Brown survived because he retained a core of loyal ministers and a disciplined political operation. Despite flirting with the idea, his Cabinet never turned on him – and more than one of today’s contenders may have the lessons from David Miliband’s dithering in mind. All of this allowed Brown’s government to limp on to its electoral fate. While Starmer has no such cadre of loyal support – do any ministers have the nerve to move against him?  

For businesses, the implication is clear: a leadership change this year is no longer just a possibility – it should be factored into all planning. But a further scenario that must be considered is Starmer holding on – with the government hollowed out, and increasingly divided, until it too finally stumbles into the electorate. 

If you’d like to know more about our on Labour’s leadership candidates, please contact James Cruikshank, Head of Policy in our Advocacy team at [email protected]. You can also register your interest for attending a briefing event with our policy experts here.