‘A lot can happen in four weeks. Reputations can be enhanced or destroyed in that time. Voices can be lost or found. Momentum can switch any number of times.’
These were the words of wisdom imparted to me by a veteran TD a fortnight ago when asked for his verdict on who would win the forthcoming Irish presidential election. It appears that he may not have been too far off the mark, especially with the reputations bit!
Over the first two weeks of the campaign, we indeed witnessed fluctuations in each of the candidates’ fortunes, and by extension, their respective campaign momentum. But then came the first weekend in October, bringing us the story of a rent over payment of €3,300 accidentally made to Jim Gavin when he was a landlord in 2009. Sixteen years and six managerial All-Ireland titles later, and it seems the money hadn’t been repaid to the tenant despite numerous attempts by the tenant to recover the overpayment. Then, as the story evolved, we received the results of the first campaign opinion poll since the close of nominations.
The Sunday Independent/Ireland Thinks poll, with a sample of 1,430 adults nationwide was conducted on Thursday, October 3rd and Friday, October 4th, with a margin of error of 2.6%. It had Catherine Connolly (Independent) on 32%, Jim Gavin (Fianna Fáil) on 15% and Heather Humphreys (Fine Gael) on 23%, with a considerable 30% undecided.
The poll came after days of controversy for Connolly in particular, with revelations about a person she had hired to work in Leinster House in 2018. Ursula Ní Shionnáin had been sentenced to six years in jail in 2014 by the Special Criminal Court after being found guilty of unlawful possession of firearms and possession of ammunition. I bumped into Connolly briefly in Leinster House on the day the story was about to break. She seemed relaxed and unphased, going about her Dáil business. It seems a significant portion of those polled were unphased by the story too. At 32%, this was a great poll for Connolly and the combined left.
For Humphreys and Fine Gael, this wasn’t the best of polls, but it could have been worse. At first glance, a nine-point deficit would seem like a lot, but with 30% of those polled declaring as undecided, and with Gavin trailing at 15%, she had two sizeable pools to fish from for both first preferences, and transfers from Gavin. For Fianna Fáil and their candidate, there was no way of sugar-coating it – this was a poor showing. I texted a friend in Fianna Fáil on Sunday morning to get his view. ‘In the words of D:Ream: Things Can Only Get Better.’ It was a reply that aged quicker than the elderly knight at the end of Indian Jones and the Last Crusade. By lunchtime, following a difficult appearance on The Week in Politics candidates’ debate, a former colleague sent me a video of Gavin struggling under questioning by Louise Burne of the Irish Examiner during a post-debate media doorstep at RTÉ. Gavin cut a forlorn figure, standing alone behind a host of broadcast mics. ‘Game over’ was the caption attached to the video. And a few hours later, it was.
Gavin’s withdrawal from the contest on Sunday night was seismic. This was unprecedented in the history of Irish presidential elections. It would be remarkable for an officially nominated candidate to withdraw from a general election, or even a Council election. For it to happen in an election for the highest office in the land breaks all templates. If you saw it on a Netflix political drama, you’d say: that wouldn’t happen.
So, what does it all mean and what will be the consequences? It remains to be seen where the fall-out within Fianna Fáil will lead to, but the story has certainly been a major distraction on budget week. But, let’s park all that for now and focus on what the immediate impact will be on the presidential election.
Firstly, under electoral rules, because Jim Gavin was officially nominated by the September 24th deadline, he continues to be a candidate in the eyes of the law, and his name will still appear on the ballot paper, sandwiched between Catherine Connolly and Heather Humphreys. Any votes he receives will be counted as normal, and these votes are fully transferrable. If he gets enough votes, he may even be elected! This, however, is highly unlikely, although we all know people who will now give Jim the vote for the craic, in protest or out of pity.
The most likely electoral repercussion is that some traditional Fianna Fáil voters may now choose not to exercise their franchise. If this happens, it would probably be most damaging for Heather Humphreys, who would have hoped to have benefitted strongly from Fianna Fáil transfers – last Sunday’s poll showed her being over twice more likely than Connolly to pick up transfers from Gavin. For Humphreys, a high turnout of traditional Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil voters will be crucial if we are to believe polling figures. And at this point, it’s important to state that polls can be wrong. That’s why politicians often roll out the old cliché: ‘The only poll that matters is in the ballot box’ - especially when it’s a poor poll showing. But, it should be pointed out that polling for Irish elections has been largely accurate in recent years. Can we assume that the polls are accurate? Not definitely, but probably.
I asked my aforementioned wise old TD friend how he reads it now.
‘It depends on how the second half of the campaign goes. It’s effectively a two-horse race now, so it’s easier for voters to decide on who they like best, or dislike least. We haven’t really had a contest like this in Irish politics in modern history. This is completely unknown territory for the voter.’
Which brings me back to my previous blog, where I suggested that the destination of second preference votes could determine the ultimate outcome. Forget all that now. The game has completely changed since the bombshell on Sunday night, and voters are now being asked to be decisive in a way they never have had to be before.
The radio debate on RTE Drivetime on Thursday evening was a straight shoot-out between Connolly and Humphreys. It may not have been dynamite, but it was feisty. Humphreys was in more combative mode than we’ve seen her to date, particularly landing a blow on Connolly surrounding the latter’s initial failure to rule out hiring someone to work in Áras an Uachtaráin if they had previously been convicted of rape.
With 30% undecided and Gavin’s 15% still to play for, how the remaining debate performances sit with this sizable cohort may very well determine who will be the next President of Ireland. And the next poll will also be huge for momentum.
Right now, Catherine Connolly has the lead and the momentum. And the smell of victory for the united left may be a massive advantage at this stage in terms of preparations to get the vote out, come October 24th. Watch this space. It could be the pivotal factor when all is said and done. But, there’s still a long way to go. It’s only half-time yet.
Brendan Griffin is a former Fine Gael TD for Kerry and former Minister of State for Tourism and Sport.
