On the ground in Manchester last week, at first glance you’d be forgiven for thinking it was a bit of a ghost town.
Not only could you clear security in under 10 minutes, regardless of the hour, the absence of all protestors, even the reliably consistent anti-Brexit Steve Bray, made it feel like being at school in the holidays.
Consistent nods to 1998 from senior commentators and party grandees who remember it all too well. An absence of the professional lobby en masse, with teams attending for a short period or not at all. Not unusual for this point of the electoral cycle, especially with the very high prices for exhibiting at Labour Party Conference, and additional costs of Reform UK’s gathering being added to the roster.
However, as the week went on, something really miraculous was afoot. The party faithful seemed to be filling up their cup. The continued perceived “low calibre” of Reform defections seemed only to embolden them. With, I am told, strong numbers of applications to the Parliamentary candidates’ list – including new ones each time defections are announced.
I wondered if it was Tory optimism, echo chambering, or simply delusion, but as I started to write down my thoughts on the train back, the headlines flowed in. The political media was alight with recognition of the momentum behind Kemi Badenoch following her rallying speech. A speech that called for action, a strong hark back to values (something many, including myself, have been asking for now for quite some time) … and… some policy. Not just any policy, Conservative policies. What a heady combination. On the floor of the main hall, there were tears, cheers and genuine standing ovations.
Something extraordinary had happened. Kemi, who has spent the last year genuinely asking her team to do their homework, had got an A*. Few mentions of the R word, many mentions of the Prime Minister’s failures. Not trying to out-Reform Reform but accusing Keir Starmer of being a populist and Nigel Farage of being a Socialist. A narrative of repentance, but also of courage, it was received by the audience like a Disney story of good vs evil. A week that started with calls for her replacement ended with the party’s “true believers” leaving conference and wanting to head straight out on to the doorstep to campaign.
So, His Majesty’s Official Opposition, returning to Parliament this week, as they all head back to school for the longest period of the annual calendar with no recess (12 weeks now until Christmas break) with a spring in its step. The Right-Wing media chipper, for example the Spectator profile piece on Tory legend Sheridan Westlake, less shy about LOTO and its work.
As all political parties look to May’s mass local elections – including all of London and 11 new metro mayors – as firing the starting gun on the political momentum that will guide the next few years, what remains to be seen is can the Tories turn this impetus into a ground army to convince the electorate they are not dead yet? Watch this space.
