‘If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs and blaming it on you;’ – Words written by English poet Rudyard Kipling about eighty years before an Irish boy named Paschal was even born, but could just as well have been written this week.
On Tuesday, Ireland’s Minister for Finance, Paschal Donohoe, announced that he would be leaving politics to take up a top role with the World Bank. As Ireland’s cabinet minister with the longest unbroken service (over eleven years), his departure represents the penultimate severance with the cabinet membership of the Enda Kenny era, and a massive loss of talent, wisdom and experience for the government, and for the Fine Gael party. For Paschal, like him or not, was one of the steadiest and most substantial politicians in a generation – the one to keep his head when all about are losing theirs.
While many within the body politic anticipated that this departure would some day come, the timing caught most by surprise.
‘It was quick in the end,’ said one Senator with whom I spoke on Tuesday afternoon, a line reminiscent of funeral parlour phraseology.
‘He kept it well under wraps,’ said a Ministerial colleague later that night. ‘’Twas like the third secret of Fatima.’
And, he will be missed. Within the Fine Gael parliamentary party, Paschal was an authority, not feared but greatly respected. Within government, he commanded similar appreciation. Here was a man with a deep knowledge and understanding of politics, economics and people, a constant reader of information. As a minister serving alongside him, it was hard to get angry with him, even when the axe was swinging your way. I especially recall his decision in 2018 to revert to the traditional VAT rate of 13.5% for the tourism and hospitality sector, after the government we were both supporting had temporarily reduced the rate to 9% back in 2011 as an economic stimulus in a slumped economy. As Minister for Tourism, I was acutely aware that the measure would be deeply unpopular within the industry, especially in my own constituency of Kerry, where tourism plays a vital role in the local economy. But, sitting down to negotiate with Paschal was almost impossible, his affability disarming, his purpose unwavering. The reversion to 13.5% went ahead, but, ironically, was eventually reversed in Paschal’s final budget, with the 9% rate due to return on July 1st 2026.
By then, Pascal will be well settled in his new office in Washington DC, the DC bit being no reference to his former constituency of Dublin Central. Also by then, we should know the results of the two by-elections that are due in the next six months – one to replace Paschal, the other to fill the seat in Galway West vacated by President Connolly. How the government parties of Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil perform in both contests will be closely watched, especially within both respective parties. The extent to which the parties and independents of the left co-operate in these contests may also provide an
insight into how preparations for the next general, European and local elections might play out.
But what will be the main impact of Paschal’s departure? Many conversations in the corridors and quiet corners of Leinster House this week included speculation that the national purse strings would loosen further with Prudent Paschal out of the way. The fact that he earned such a moniker amongst colleagues at a time of unprecedented public spending speaks volumes in itself. How the new Minister for Finance, Fine Gael Leader Simon Harris, navigates the role while trying to contain the demands and expectations of his own parliamentary party will be an interesting watch.
‘The next budget will be a lot more popular,’ declared one hopeful government backbencher to me on Thursday. ‘We’ll miss Paschal, but we won’t miss the tightness.’
‘It’s alright now once they don’t go mad spending,’ said one opposition spokesperson. ‘They won’t be able to resist. The populists have a clear run.’
The next budget will give us an idea of what direction will be taken, but one thing that is agreed by many is that the government has lost its most influential advocate for fiscal conservatism. If you’re working in the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council, you can probably expect to spend much of 2026 on full-alert.
Brendan Griffin is a former Minister for Tourism and Sport and Fine Gael TD for Kerry.
