At first glance, this weekend’s changes at junior ministerial level are a snoozefest for all but the most diehard political junkies. As with Labour reshuffles gone by, favourites of No 10 are the biggest winners, while older MPs or those identified with the soft left get the boot.
Despite received wisdom, the Chancellor heads into the Budget with her influence mostly intact. There have been some murmurings in Westminster and the City that Rachel Reeves had her wings clipped, especially after her sister was demoted. But MPs from her patch in Leeds have joined the junior rungs, and some opponents of her signature projects, such as Heathrow expansion, are gone.
On the face of it, appointing a bunch of new intake loyalists to junior posts is a recipe for resentment. And those joining the lowest rung of government in the Whips Office include MPs who pushed the No 10 line with other MPs during the recent welfare reform vote. But many of these MPs are well-liked by their colleagues in the class of 2024. That could make for better communication with backbenchers when the next crunch vote comes.
The No 10 strategy: Carry on Hero Voting
Of more concern to some Labour MPs will be the overall vibe the reshuffle gives off. The large number of loyalists suggests No 10 is doubling down on its existing strategy in the face of warnings about its ineffectiveness. The loss of some senior socially liberal MPs from the frontbench may also raise eyebrows.
And there is a shift in the Government’s regional balance. Scottish Labour has done well, with eight Scottish MPs now on the frontbench. Some commentators see this as a panicked response from No 10 to a backlash over Ian Murray’s exit as Scotland Secretary, However, those promoted (such as Martin McCluskey at DESNZ) are highly rated. This is clear attempt to firm up the party’s pitch to Scottish voters ahead of next May’s election
The North West – Andy Burnham and Angela Rayner’s power base – is the big loser. Manchester MPs Lucy Powell, Jeff Smith and Mike Kane are among those gone along with Justin Madders, the Cheshire MP overseeing the Employment Rights Bill. This will hang over conference in Liverpool and create an obvious cluster of discontented backbenchers. But No 10 may see that as a price worth paying to ‘scrape the barnacles off the boat’ when it comes to its policy agenda.
A question of deputy leadership
All these tensions will be on display in the deputy leadership contest, nominations for which now close this Thursday. Ex-Transport Secretary Lou Haigh is all but certain to be the candidate of the unions and to champion the ERB given her previous criticism of DP World. Burnham has already publicly indicated his support for her or another North West MP like Powell. Dame Emily Thornberry and Rosena Allin-Khan will appeal to members frustrated at the Government’s rightward drift on social issues and its position on Gaza.
It remains to be seen if the leadership can put forward a candidate that can appeal to at least one of these voting blocs in a ranked choice election. Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson would have some appeal to Northern members and the unions, but is not a natural campaigner. Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood would be able to respond to grassroots frustration over Gaza, but is to the right on social issues and has a lot on her plate in leading the Government’s agenda on migration and asylum.
Whoever the favoured candidate is, No 10 is determined to secure the post for them at all costs – and to prioritise this political hot potato above all else in the coming weeks. Keir’s Starmertroopers will have to find their ministerial feet fast while the centre is distracted.
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