After a relatively quiet start to the year on the Labour leadership front, questions are again being asked about Keir Starmer’s grip on the party, following Andy Burnham’s abortive attempt to get back into Parliament.
At Hanover, we’ve been conducting detailed analysis of potential Starmer successors, looking at how they – and Starmer himself, should he weather the current pressure - could shape policy across a range of business sectors.
Ahead of the launch of this research, today we take a look at how the would-be PMs might approach the FMCG sector – from trade and supply chains through to business costs, sustainability and public health regulation.
Pragmatism and prevention
In this area, those tipped to succeed Starmer can broadly be divided into two familiar camps: a more pragmatic, pro-business group concerned with costs and trade, and a softer-left tradition that favours stronger intervention in the name of health, fairness and sustainability. In practice, however, many leading figures cut across these divides.
Several senior figures, including Health Secretary Wes Streeting and Defence Secretary John Healey, have shown a pragmatic sensitivity to business costs and supply-chain resilience, often framing these issues through inflation, productivity and national resilience rather than deregulation per se. Both have been critical of the impact of Brexit-related friction on prices and availability, and have signaled openness to closer EU alignment where it can improve supply-chain stability.
But Streeting is notable for pairing this pragmatism with a strong personal commitment to prevention, suggesting he could be more interventionist on public health - particularly around reformulation and HFSS - than some businesses might expect from a figure otherwise seen as pro-business.
In the soft left are the likes of Burnham, former Deputy PM Angela Rayner and Energy Secretary Ed Miliband, though their instincts, records in office and tolerance for business pushback vary considerably. Rayner has supported tougher restrictions on the marketing and pricing of unhealthy food and has previously been associated with proposals to increase so-called ‘sin taxes’. Burnham’s experience as a mayor and former health secretary has shaped a strong belief in public health intervention, although he tends to lean more pro-business in other areas such as trade and business rates, often favouring place-based partnership models over national mandates. Miliband remains the party’s most overtly interventionist figure on environmental and sustainability regulation, albeit with a growing emphasis on delivery and industrial strategy
There are one or two contenders who defy this divide entirely and are harder to read through a traditional business-interventionist lens. Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood, influenced by Blue Labour thinking, is supportive of public health goals but cautious about measures that risk being perceived as overly nanny-state, while bringing more Eurosceptic instincts to trade and migration questions.
What businesses should watch out for
From our analysis, we’ve identified four key things FMCG businesses need to watch:
Public health: Expect broad support for prevention, but differing appetites for the pace and intrusiveness of intervention - from reformulation incentives to advertising and pricing controls. This will shape not just the direction of policy, but the speed at which new measures are introduced and the scope for voluntary or phased approaches. Businesses must be ready to adapt to changes to thresholds and requirements to remain competitive.
Trade and supply chains: Many possible Starmer successors recognise the inflationary impact of friction and are open to closer EU alignment, but the form and framing of this will vary – from technical alignment in areas, like SPS, to broader political signalling around standards and resilience
Business costs: While some candidates are more receptive to arguments about unintended consequences and competitiveness, most prioritise higher wage floors and labour standards even where costs rise – placing a premium on productivity, automation and skills as mitigating strategies.
Sustainability: There is strong support across the party for sustainability goals, but clear differences in approach - from innovation-led and business-sensitive pathways to more interventionist regulation on packaging, emissions and environmental standards - with varying sensitivity to cost and delivery risk and to the cumulative burden on FMCG supply chains.
Not only does leadership uncertainty have implications for the direction of key policies affecting the FMCG sector, but it also causes policy volatility, which means businesses must be accurately attuned to the latest developments and be agile and forward thinking enough to adapt and thrive in this climate.
Join the conversation
This blog provides only a snapshot of Hanover’s wider work on the Labour leadership landscape and its implications for business. We have a more detailed piece of analysis that we can share or brief you on, exploring how different leadership scenarios could translate into policy direction and sector-specific impact.
If you would like to discuss these insights or what they could mean for your business, please get in touch.
